I put a new sports trading system to the test today. One of the picks led me to trade pregame the odds of Hoffenheim that hosted a Bundesliga match against Hannover. The Betfair graph shows the odds’ decline from 2.00 to 1.75 before the game kicked off. Due to the breakout that happened in the morning, I backed Hoffenheim to win with the intention to lay at shorter odds. Indeed, I exited the trade ten minutes before the off, having secured a profit without worrying about the final result. The shown numbers surely aren’t anything to be proud of, but until I collect enough data, I am obliged to bet at very low stakes.
The spreadsheet I created in Microsoft Excel calculated the stake I had to bet on Hoffenheim, in order not to risk more than €1 should the odds drift higher than 2.08. I set my stop loss at that level, since 2.06 had been the most recent peak in the Betfair graph. Judging from the odds movement, there have been two more breakouts till the odds rested at 1.80; probably to some kind of news I have no idea about or sports experts betting at presumably value odds. Anyhow, that was the best performing trade of the fresh trading system I am experimenting on today.
Here is the performance of the system for the first 13 trades in football events. I am including 5% Betfair base commission in the Profit and Loss figures.