Rafael Nadal was winning against Novak Djokovic when the 2012 French Open final was suspended due to rain. Djokovic had just managed to win a set, improving his odds to win the tennis match and leading to a noticeable breakout at Nadal’s odds price graph. About 60 million euros have already been traded in Roland Garros final game, mostly on Nadal’s betting odds! The odds have pulled back to the resistance-now-support level at 1.40 and perhaps trading Nadal’s odds when the play resumes could make money for sports traders willing to lay the favorite’s odds!
If you happen to be a technical analyst, you must have already pointed out the upwards breakout and the developing uptrend. Betting in favor of Nadal’s win in 2012 French Open final led the odds lower than the support level at 1.10 yesterday and 16K euros were even traded at as short odds as 1.02 – that is a reward of just €320! The risk of sports trading at so short odds is a probable trend’s reversal and that is exactly what happened at the Betfair price graph of Rafael Nadal! The Spaniard lost the third set and he was behind 1-2 during the fourth set when play was suspended. The odds surged quickly up to 1.65 and have now retraced to 1.40.
My pick would be laying at 1.40 and setting a profit target at 1.65 the least, unless the odds print a lower high. Stop loss should be set right below the support level. Scaling out is recommended in sports trading, since Djokovic’ performance may allow the odds to drift even higher, in case he manages to win the fourth set as well, increasing the potential profit. Therefore scaling out about 70% or so of the initial position at 1.70 is recommended and trading out the rest when a double top is printed on the betting graph should be our next profit target.
Meanwhile, it would be interesting to find out whether that 750,000 euros bet is a hedge bet by a bookmaker, or an actual bet by a high roller!
Update: Support level breakout at the game’s resume.