I know almost nothing about horse racing, yet I was quite successful in trading the fixed odds of horse racing markets at Betfair for years. I usually get asked what kind of research leads me to predict whether odds will climb or drop and I always discuss about technical analysis. In the past I have wondered if technical analysis actually works in Betfair trading and it still amazes me to find out that one can be profitable in Betfair trading by just following basic rules of technical analysis. For example, here is my yesterday’s profit and loss statement when I traded the betting odds of 7 favorite horses.
I began odds trading in a Newmarket race but it was the first Ascot race that got me thinking of actively trading Saturday’s markets. I noticed a down trend of the favorite horse called “Face The Problem” and I was waiting for a bearish signal to enter short – that is to back the horse’s odds, since Betfair trading is similar to stock trading. I picked the entry point at the long falling candlestick right after the upwards candlestick, pointed out in the BetAngel Pro graph. That candlestick pattern is a major reversal formation. I traded out the minute the odds printed a new high at the bottom of the odds chart.
Next trade was done in a ranging market. The odds, much like stock prices, are either trending up, down or sideways inside a trading range; known as consolidation phase. Usually I prefer trading inside that range instead of waiting for a breakout. I first traded the dropping odds down to the support level, and then waited for the odds to climb up to the resistance level of the range to back the horse’s odds once again and complete two profitable trades.
The best trade of the day happened on the last Ascot race. Unfortunately I haven’t saved the Betfair graph of this one, but it was more than obvious that odds were going to drift up to 6.0 when they were still trading at 5.0-5.4. In fact I tweeted that prediction before I even submitted the first lay bet.
@hybridtrading Thanks, I only got one of those though, busy twitting. Pasaka Boy surging to 6.0 on next Ascot race?
— Jim Makos (@jimmakoscom) October 6, 2012
The total profit of odds trading before the start of the last race at Ascot was almost 50 euros, when I greened up those 289 euros accumulated on Pasaka Boy.
Do I know anything about the horses mentioned above? Nothing, nada, absolutely zero knowledge whatsoever. No information was being used to trade profitably these markets, like news, tips or form guides. Just firing up Betfair in a web browser and trading using the ladder and candlestick charts of trading software, BetAngel Pro. And that’s not done exclusive in horse racing, since I also apply technical analysis in football trading and Formula 1 odds trading.