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Presidential election influenced by debates and hurricanes

Futures

Presidential election influenced by debates and hurricanes

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According to the Betfair trading graphs of the Presidential Election betting market, debates enhanced Romney’s chance to win the election but during the hurricane Sandy Obama’s odds improved considerably. We can find proof of this statement by taking a look at the implied chance percentage graph of Betfair graphs. Obama’s chance dropped from 85% to 60% and during last week the trend reversed and his decimal odds shortened to 1.33 or 75%.

obama-election-odds-graph

Last time I discussed about predictions for Presidential election 2012 and graph analysis of the betting odds, I made a comparison between the Pew poll and the election’s graphs. Since then, the upward trend line of Obama’s odds was breached while debates between the two candidates were taking place, proving that people began betting more on Romney. Then came the hurricane Sandy and Obama’s chance bottomed at 60% and reversed, gaining about 15% during the last 7 days!

It’s now really a question of whether the resumed uptrend will retest the resistance level at 85% and breach it or will fail to print new highs. In that case dropping odds of Obama will likely begin drifting and Romney’s chance might in fact climb to more than 40%, his all-time high at the betting exchange! Trading on Betfair is another way to wager on the next presidential election and it is pretty similar to futures trading, with political futures expiring on the 6th of November. After all, Betfair trading resembles a lot of online stock trading.

What do you think will further influence the odds of Obama and Romney until the election day? Would you agree that hurricane Sandy was the reason that Obama’s odds dropped or was it something else? Let me know in the comments below.

Jim entered the financial world by trading sports and now invests in US stock markets and forex, trying to buy low and sell high. Connect with Jim: StockTwits | TradingView