3 days ago I was making a prediction regarding the Greek election in June 2012. I predicted that the conservative party’s betting odds, ND, would climb and SYRIZA’s odds would shorten. At the time of writing ND decimal odds were at 1.7 and SYRIZA was trading at the betting exchange, Betfair, for 2.40. Now, election in Greece seems like a real derby with both parties’ odds closing to even odds (2.00)! Perhaps today’s live fight on TV between parliament members was the event that led bettors and traders push the odds to these limits. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to monitor the election’s betting market, rather than listen to the election polls! After all, those people are putting their money where their mouths are!
Clearly there’s now an obvious uptrend regarding ND odds for vote winner and a strong downtrend for SYRIZA. The meaning behind the betting odds is that, the Greek election’s result is now closer to 50-50 than ever! 1-to-1 or 2.00 is a key price level in Betfair’s price graphs, no matter the event. Political betting is quite popular both in betting exchanges and in spread betting firms and I often blog about elections (like the US Presidential Election), since I find it fascinating to combine investing with such important political events. It’s not that rare to actually find good trading opportunities, like Greek election.