Romney may have taken the lead in the recent Pew Research Center poll against Obama, however the president of the United States is still odds-on favorite to win next Presidential Election. Not only that, but his chances have been improved considerably since the last time I talked about predictions of election 2012. Back then Obama was 60% favorite to remain in the White House, a figure that has increased to 70% according to Betfair odds. Meanwhile Romney’s odds had hit an all-time high at 40% before plummeting to 17%. Since the debate took place his odds increased to 30%.
According to the poll, Romney has now a 4-point lead among likely voters, yet I can’t see that support level at 70% in Obama’s graph failing. Surely the debate didn’t help Obama judging by the recent pullback, but the trend is facing upward; trend-following traders will actively be involved in this kind of political futures trading – perhaps via Betfair trading.
The first time I discussed about US Presidential election was 4 months ago when Obama’s odds were trading inside a range. Since no breakout had occurred I had chosen to pick the support level as an entry point and trade against Obama’s win. 3 months later a new trend was developing in favor of Obama and I alerted traders who might have followed the advice to reverse their positions. At that time Obama was 60% favorite to win the election.
The US Presidential Election is getting quite popular in futures trading, as more than 7m euros have been wagered in this market at the betting exchange alone. The liquidity is nowhere near to other political events, like Greek Election in June (85K euros). Still, that didn’t prevent me from correctly predicting the fixed odds’ trend in my country’s elections. Maybe I’m not wrong at the US election either.